And the 2008 NBA MVP is…

The season is over, and now it’s really time to talk 2008 MVP award. I personally think it is only a 2-man race for NBA Most Valuable Player between Kobe Bryant, the current front runner, and Chris Paul, my mid-season winner.

Obviously there are a couple other candidates that fanatics could make arguments for as well. LeBron James, the most significant player to his particular team. Kevin Garnett, the new green fire behind Boston’s resurgence. And the wild card who might have gotten at least one vote a couple months ago is Manu Ginobili, the “closer” on the San Antonio Spurs and 6^th man of the year (the trophy is without a doubt already engraved). As Bill Simmons points out this is one of the best MVP races in NBA history, so choosing a single player with complete certainty is a near impossibility.

The point of this article is to add some structure to the MVP conjecture and hoopla (the NBA doesn’t really have clear criteria). I’ll attempt to do this while remaining unbiased (since I have no hometown rooting interest in any one candidate) and hopefully ignite some insightful and lively debate.

With that said…

MVP Criteria

In sports, a Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is an honor typically bestowed upon the best performing player or players on a specific team, in an entire league, or for a particular contest or series of contests. - Wikipedia

Is it just me or is that a pretty vague definition? How do you define “best performing” player?

Let’s create some criteria (loosely in order of importance):

1. Team Success - Factual (wins and loses), relative to conference strength and relative to preseason expectations
   1. The 50-win MVP rule - Essentially to win the NBA MVP the player’s team must have accumulated at least 50 wins in the regular season. The media voters have made this a precedent, and it really seems to be the only identifiable criteria we can confidently put our finger on.
2. Individual Stats - Obviously this is positional. You wouldn’t compare KG’s rebounding to Chris Paul’s board work.
3. Supporting Cast - The good, bad and the ugly of NBA sidekicks.
4. Games played/Injuries - Durability and “will the team die without you?”
5. Head-to-head - “I outplayed you” vs. “But my team beat yours.” For me this is a great situation to look at because it combines the above criteria in a collection of single match-ups. The players may or may not guard each other, but you can clearly see who rises to the occasion individually against the crème of the crop as well as lift their team’s performance during those situations.

The Two Leading MVP Candidates

Kobe Bryant

Team Success - 57-25, good for best in the highly competitive Western Conference. That marks the first fifty-win season for the Lakers since Shaq left. The Lakers were also an impressive 37-15 vs. the West. Considering 5 out of 10 ESPN analysts had the Lakers missing the playoffs and on average the Lakers finished 8^th in preseason Western Conference predictions, what Kobe and the Lakers were able to do this season is a tremendous accomplishment.

Individual Stats - Typical Kobe year at 28ppg, 5.4 apg, 6.3rpg and 1.8spg. Shooting: 46% from the field and 36% from three (2^nd best of his career). Nothing over the top, just what you expect from Kobe, and I think people (LeBron advocates) tend to take that for granted and spin it as a reason why he shouldn’t win the MVP. To me that is just faulty reasoning. His numbers are clearly on par with past MVP winners at the shooting guard position. The only thing holding him back in the past was team success. His scoring is down, only because he doesn’t need to score 30+ every game for his team to win. And it is the maturation of Kobe that he has adjusted his game this season to empower Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and the rest of the Lakers players to step up and carry a bit more of the burden.

Supporting Cast - The 2006 Lakers closely resembled the 2007 Lakers opening day roster. The major addition was Derek Fisher at the point, replacing the clearly inadequate Smush Parker. Was that enough for a 15-game turnaround? Probably not. How about when you factor in a much-improved Andrew Bynum? Now we are getting closer but probably not 15 games. Has anyone else stepped up tremendously this season? Well, Lamar Odom is shooting 52% from the field, by far the best of his career. Considering all of that I would still rank the “other guys” 3rd among the top four MVP candidates supporting casts. Kobe has elevated the level of play of his teammates with his own play and more importantly his attitude. Do his teammates love him? Maybe not, but I am sure they like playing with him significantly more this season compared to previous years.

Games played/Injuries - This is only the 2^nd season Kobe has played in all 82-games. That is even more significant since he has been riddled with a finger injury that will require surgery to fully heal. The toughness and commitment to winning he has shown are obvious traits of a true NBA MVP candidate.

Head-to-head

• vs. Boston: 0-2 - 25ppg/5rpg/3apg/32.5% FGs/23% 3pt
• vs. Cleveland: 0-2 - 27ppg/8.5rpg/5.5apg/41.9% FGs/0% 3pt/surprising 69% FT
• vs. New Orleans: 2-2 - 28ppg/8rpg/6.3apg/50% FGs/45.8% 3pt

2-6 in the head-to-head battles isn’t very good. Especially since Kobe is probably the most competitive player in the NBA, one would expect him to excel in these match ups. I remember watching the game in LA against Cleveland, and LeBron clearly outplayed him in that one and, down the stretch, did a fantastic job forcing Kobe into some questionable shots. But as Josh over at Respect Kobe points out, the last MVP vs. MVP match up of the season against Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets was won by Kobe. And that game had significant meaning in playoff positioning. He had a near triple double with 29pts, 10 boards and 8 dimes, while shooting 53% from the field and, oh yea, only one turnover. A fantastic game that essentially locked up the top spot in the West for the Lakers. Therefore, Kobe stepped up and lifted his team when it mattered most. Fadango over at the Sport Sayers marked that game as the deciding factor in the MVP race. Whoever came out on top had it locked. Although I disagree with that extreme of a proclamation (it’s an 82-game award), I do believe the voters were paying very close attention.

Chris Paul

Team Success - 56-26 good for second best in the Western Conference. How many people thought the Hornets would even make the playoffs? I don’t think many fans would have put money on them being in the top 8 in the super strong West. Like the Lakers, 5 out of 10 ESPN analysts had the Hornets missing the playoffs. On average they were predicted to finish just behind the Lakers (8.8 vs. 8.4 avg. finish in the West). I personally feel like Paul made David West, a very good player, into an All-Star; gave both Morris Peterson’s and Peja Stojakovik’s new life and maximized all of Tyson Chandler’s ability (they have to be the leading duo in alley-oop baskets). Paul is the catalyst that makes the Hornets a very good team, and without him they would clearly be in the lottery.

Individual Stats - Truly historic numbers anyway you look at them: 21.1ppg, 11.6apg, 4rpg, 2.7spg, 48.8% FGs, 36.9% 3pt. and 85% from the line. WOW. Everyone knows this is the first time anyone has had 20ppg, 10apg and 2.5spg since Isiah Thomas, and these players are the only ones to do it since steals became an official NBA stat. To emphasize how great this season is even more consider this:

Since the NBA was started in 1946…

• Only 9 other times has a player averaged 21ppg, 11apg and 4rpg in a season (Oscar Robertson - 4, Magic Johnson - 3, Isiah Thomas - 2)
• Of those 9 seasons only three times did one of those players shoot better than Chris Paul’s 85.1% from the free throw line (Magic in ‘88 and ‘89 and the Big O in ‘63)
• Of those 9 seasons only two times did one of those players shoot better than Chris Paul’s 48.8% from the field (Magic in ‘86 and ‘88)
• Since turnovers became an official stat 27 other players have averaged 11+ assist per game in a season. Only Chris Paul has done it with less than 3 turnovers per game.

What all that means is Chris Paul had the greatest season by a pure point guard in NBA history!

Supporting Cast - Paul’s Hornet teammates are the 2nd best group of the MVP supporting cast. David West is an All-Star and Peja Stojakovik is a 3-time All-Star. Paul certainly has help around him. Are his teammates significantly better than Kobe’s crew? I don’t think so. But Paul has had the luxury of playing with the same starting line-up all year. I think that is an advantage for Paul in maintaining a winning team compared to the Laker’s rotating line-up due to injuries and trades.

Games played/Injuries - Paul played in 80 of 82 games, the model of durability for a point guard that handles the ball as much as he does. He missed back-to-back games with an ankle sprain in which the Hornets went 1 and 1.

Head-to-head

• vs. Boston: 1-1 - 20.5ppg/2rpg/8.5apg/50% FGs/57% 3pt
• vs. Cleveland: 2-0 - 17.5ppg/4.5rpg/14.5apg/31.4% FGs/14.3% 3pt
• vs. LA Lakers: 2-2 - 23.3ppg/4rpg/15apg/45.2% FGs/20% 3pt

5-3 in the head-to-head battles is tied for first among the top four MVP candidates teams with KG and Boston. Chris Paul is proving to be a big game player in the NBA. I think over time his competitiveness could very well rival Kobe’s. He doesn’t back down from anyone or any team, and that is the sign of a great leader and MVP.

Honorable Mention

Kevin Garnett (3^rd) - He had to be in contention because his team’s success is unparalleled. But KG loses a lot of points because his supporting cast all year has been far better than any other MVP candidate. One could easily argue Garnett’s teammates represent the best in the NBA. In fact many people believe Paul Pierce stepped his game up to the point of being just as important as KG this season. Factor in KG’s missed games due to injury and the team going 7-2 without him, and I don’t think he is on the same level with Paul and Bryant. Why? Take him off the current Celtics team, and they are still in the playoffs. More importantly I still think Boston would have won 58-60 games. If you take Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant away from their clubs, and without question those teams would be vying for a top 10 draft pick.

The strongest case that can be made for Kevin Garnett as MVP is the comparison to Bill Russell, and the early 60’s Boston teams. And I haven’t even seen mentioned anywhere. Like the 2008 Celtic’s, those early 60’s Boston teams were filled with more than one great player including Bob Cousy and John Havlicek. As well as very strong supporting players. KG impacts the game in the exact same way Russell did when he won 3 straight MVP awards. Dominant on the glass and on the defensive end of the court, and most importantly he’s the vocal leader, as well as a leader by example. And because of that if KG were to be announced the winner, in no way would I be mad at that decision.

LeBron James (4^th) - 45 wins in a sub-par Eastern Conference just isn’t good enough to be considered for MVP under the 50-win rule. “But the Cavs went 0-4 in the games he missed.” Does that speak to his importance? Absolutely. But that doesn’t guarantee they would have won all four games does it? Especially when they played at Boston and at Washington during that stretch. Since we are talking about the injury, did he really miss 4 games with a hurt finger? The fact that Kobe has played through a finger injury that will need surgery after the season is enough to take points away from LeBron. “But the Cavs had a lot of injuries all season.” True, but so did the Lakers the last few years when Kobe had some of his best statistical seasons, and he didn’t win the MVP. And he wasn’t robbed those seasons either based simply on the 50-win rule. Those years other candidates had great individual seasons with superior team success in comparison. The ultimate kicker - in 1989 Michael Jordan scored 32pts per game, averaged 8 boards, 8 assists and 2.9 steals per game all while shooting nearly 54% from the field and playing 40 minutes per night. MVP season, right? No! The Bulls only won 47 games. If MJ wasn’t the exception with those numbers, in no way should LeBron be this season with slightly lesser production. LeBron probably had a stronger argument for MVP the last two seasons when Cleveland won 50 games.

And the Winner of the 2008 NBA MVP is…

Why Kobe Bryant?

• He is finally the #1 guy on an elite team.
• His numbers, although not significantly better this year than previous campaigns, they have remained stable. And stable is easily MVP worthy.
• After all the off-season nonsense he came out and played basketball at a very high level. He led the Lakers to a 24-11 start before Andrew Bynum went down with an injury. Meaning they were on pace for 50-wins through the first 35 games of the season (before acquiring Gasol). By the way I didn’t have any problem with his comments about Andrew Bynum. I am the biggest Michael Jordan fan, and he was known for scolding teammates and calling people out. I think MJ would have done the same thing if he felt it was best for the team. No reason to treat Kobe any different.
• Kobe is very polarizing; therefore many people either love or hate him. Although this has no true bearing on a regular season MVP award, Kobe’s performance and more importantly leadership in the FIBA games may have swayed enough people who dislike Bryant in some way, shape or form (me) more in his favor. His defense was amazing and he was clearly the vocal leader on a team full of stud young bucks. Melo dominated on offense but Kobe was the MVP last summer. And I see some of that carrying over in the minds of voters.
• Kobe and the Lakers won the much anticipated MVP vs. MVP late season match-up against Chris Paul’s Hornets. That is the freshest comparison of both players in most people’s mind.
• Kobe has had to deal with the maturation process of Andrew Bynum. Then carry more of the load when Bynum got injured. All while dealing with the frustration that is Kwame Brown. Integrate and learn how to play with Pau Gasol. Then carry the load again for 10 games when Gasol went down with an ankle injury.
• Ultimately what I think will push Kobe over the top is the fact that he has been the best player in the world for at least 4-5 years, so in the minds of enough journalists (voters), he’s due.

This is how close of an MVP race and decision this was. Had Chris Paul and the Hornets won the Western Conference, only a 1-game difference, I would have named Paul my MVP. What sucks is, 9 out of 10 times, the season he had would almost automatically equate to an MVP, and with very little debate. It just so happens 2008 was that 1 in 10 occurrence.

I am calling it right now, Chris Paul will be the 2009 NBA MVP! Hold me to it.

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